Global trade outlook deteriorates sharply: Tariff uncertainty exacerbates North American export decline

On April 16, 2025, the World Trade Organization (WTO) warned in its Global Trade Prospects and Statistics report that the outlook for global trade has “deteriorated sharply” due to the impact of the tariff policy of the Trump administration in the United States. In 2025, the growth rate of global merchandise trade volume may drop from the long-term growth level of nearly 3% to -0.2%. North America was the most affected, with export trade volume falling by 12.6% and import trade volume falling by 9.6%.
The report pointed out that this is only an estimate based on the current scenario of partial extension of “reciprocal tariffs” and partial tariff exemptions for goods such as consumer electronics. If the United States re-implements these tariffs, “reciprocal tariffs” will reduce global merchandise trade volume by 0.6% in 2025, and trade policy uncertainty may lead to a further reduction of 0.8%. The combination of the two will lead to a 1.5% decline in world merchandise trade in 2025.
Trade policy uncertainty has significantly suppressed trade flows, resulting in reduced exports and weakened economic activity. The Trump administration’s reckless tariff policy and its frequent contradictory statements have heightened the risk of a global economic slowdown, which could dampen business confidence and reduce business investment, thereby hurting economic growth.
However, according to forecasts, global merchandise trade growth will rebound to 2.5% in 2026, assuming the Trump administration does not further impact the global trade landscape.