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Prospects for the alternating evolution of crude steel output control and manufacturing process structure

  1. Control of total crude steel output
    The carbon emissions of the steel industry are highly correlated with crude steel output. To achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality, China’s steel industry must first adjust the industrial structure from a macro perspective, continuously and moderately implement total reduction, eliminate backward production capacity, and should not continue to increase crude steel output, and should not export low-value-added steel in large quantities; it should take a high-quality and reduced development path. The following measures can be taken specifically:
    First, guide the development of the steel industry from scale expansion to improving energy efficiency and product quality upgrades; study the reasonable steel demand and total control issues with structural adjustment and industrial upgrading as the main line, and control the total steel output. Comprehensively analyzing the changes in data such as the annual crude steel output of my country’s steel industry since the new century, the monthly average daily output of crude steel in the past two years, the price of rebar at the end of the month, and the direct export volume of steel and the indirect export volume of steel products, it is preliminarily judged that my country’s crude steel output is generally in a state of oversupply. my country’s steel industry has entered a stage of reduced fluctuation and downward trend, but the cycle and amplitude of this fluctuation and downward trend need to be further observed. The following will predict and discuss the future trend of my country’s crude steel output.
    In order to scientifically predict China’s future crude steel production, this study refers to the IPAT (I refers to environmental load, P refers to population, A refers to GDP per capita, T refers to environmental load per unit GDP) model prediction method, and optimizes the modeling on this basis, linking crude steel production with economic development level, population size, energy consumption and energy consumption structure, and then predicting and analyzing my country’s crude steel demand from 2023 to 2060. This study sets three development scenarios of high output, medium output and low output, and constructs a national crude steel production prediction model by adjusting the GDP growth rate and population growth rate (the model calculation results are shown in Table 1).
    Through the analysis of the calculation results, it can be found that: First, my country’s steel production will show a trend of reduction in the future. In the high-yield scenario, my country’s crude steel output is expected to drop from 1.034 billion tons in 2023 to 731 million tons in 2060, a decrease of 28.26%; in the medium-yield scenario, crude steel output is expected to drop to 666 million tons in 2060, a decrease of 34.64%; in the low-yield scenario, crude steel output is expected to drop to 616 million tons in 2060, a decrease of 39.55%. Second, my country’s per capita apparent steel consumption will show a downward trend in the future. my country’s steel industry is mainly to meet domestic demand. Therefore, when predicting future crude steel production, it is assumed that the import and export of the steel industry is balanced. Under the high-production scenario, my country’s per capita apparent steel consumption is about 610 kg in 2030, and it will drop to 535 kg in 2060; under the medium-production scenario, my country’s per capita apparent steel consumption is about 600 kg in 2030, and it will drop to 485 kg in 2060; under the low-production scenario, my country’s per capita apparent steel consumption is about 590 kg in 2030, and it will drop to 450 kg in 2060.
    Second, deepen the supply-side structural reform of the steel industry, and eliminate backward production capacity, backward equipment, backward technology, backward products, and backward enterprises that do not meet national environmental protection emission standards, energy consumption limit standards, and product quality standards during the group reorganization process; it is strictly forbidden to register new steel production capacity projects under any name or in any way; for steel smelting projects that really need to be rebuilt, the capacity replacement method must be strictly implemented, and the capacity replacement supervision must be strengthened.
    Third, continue to optimize the import and export policies of steel products. Continue to encourage the import of primary steel products such as billets, ingots and semi-finished products; adhere to domestic demand as the main focus, do not use large-scale exports of low-value-added steel, coke and billets as a way to resolve overcapacity, and make full use of economic and tax means to control the export volume of primary products such as steel (billets) and coke; strictly limit the export of high-energy-consuming and low-value-added products; encourage processing into high-end finished products or electromechanical products for indirect export.
  2. Three types of typical steel manufacturing processes evolve alternately
    From the perspective of the process, under the background of “dual carbon”, the future steel industry will gradually form three typical steel manufacturing processes:
    First, large blast furnace – converter – high-end thin plate, thick plate, medium and thick plate process. The blast furnace-converter long process is bound to gradually reduce production, but it will still account for a certain proportion in the process structure. It will gradually transition to the production of flat products, especially the production of high-end thin plates, thick plates, medium and thick plates and other high-end plates in large quantities, mainly located in coastal deep-water port areas and near large mines; from the perspective of implementing the “dual carbon” strategy, especially the prospect of increasing domestic scrap steel resources, the long process for the production of bulk building materials such as rebar and wire rod is not conducive to the realization of the “dual carbon” goal.
    The second is the scrap steel-green electricity-electric furnace-long products (steel mills around cities) process. The full scrap steel electric furnace process will start with the production process change of long products for construction and gradually replace the medium and small blast furnace-converter process to produce bulk products such as rebar and wire rod. It is located around the city and is a “city steel mill” with the “two chains and one first-class (supply chain, service chain, production and manufacturing process)” system as the core.
    The third is hydrogen reduction – electric furnace – thin plate, medium and thick plate, seamless pipe, special steel process (hydrogen sources include gray hydrogen, green hydrogen, etc.). These are still in the stage of active exploration and development, and they should be comprehensively analyzed, reasonably selected, and prudently invested in stages based on their economic efficiency and the market adaptability of the products produced.
    The alternating evolution of these three types of steel manufacturing processes will be closely related to the output and flow of my country’s scrap steel resources in the future. At present, scrap steel can be divided into three categories: scrap steel produced by steel mills, scrap steel processed by downstream industries, and scrap steel depreciated by society. Based on the forecast results of my country’s crude steel output in the future in Table 1, the conversion coefficient method and the steel product life cycle method are used for different types of scrap steel to construct a scrap steel resource forecast model, and scientifically calculate the amount of various types of scrap steel resources in my country from 2023 to 2060 (the calculation results are shown in Table 2 below).
    It can be seen from this that: First, the total amount of scrap steel resources in my country will be sufficient in the future. According to the forecast results, under the three scenarios, before 2030, the average annual growth rate of my country’s scrap steel resources will be relatively slow. By 2030, the scrap steel resources will mostly remain at around 330 million tons, an increase of 50 million tons from 2023, an increase of about 18.48%; around 2045, it will enter the peak plateau period of scrap steel resource recycling, and the peak of scrap steel resources is expected to reach about 580 million tons/year, an increase of about 300 million tons from 2023; from 2050 to 2060, my country’s scrap steel resources will show a downward trend, but will generally remain above 500 million tons/year; by then, domestic steel resources and self-produced mines will basically meet the demand for crude steel production, greatly reducing the external dependence of iron ore. Second, depreciated scrap steel accounts for the majority. Under the three scenarios, the proportion of depreciated scrap steel resources in the three types of scrap steel resources is relatively large. At present, depreciated scrap steel accounts for about 64% of the total scrap steel resources, which is expected to increase to about 73% in 2030 and further to more than 85% after 2040. Third, the amount of scrap steel resources increases year by year. Between 2030 and 2050, China’s scrap steel resources will have two rapid growth stages, and will enter the peak plateau period of scrap steel resource recycling around 2045, and will then decline year by year, but the decline will not be large.

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